Key takeaways from our latest Unsworth & NovaChain webinar

In our recent webinar, “Global Shipping in 2026: Routes, Rates and Reality for Cargo Owners,” Unsworth and NovaChain unpacked the major forces shaping container shipping this year.

Hosted by Charles Hogg (Chief Commercial Officer, Unsworth) and Mitch Shanahan (Strategic Growth & Partnerships Lead, Unsworth), the session also featured Samantha Brocklehurst, Managing Partner at NovaChain and former partner at Maersk, who brought invaluable carrier-side insight into how shipping lines are reacting to market shifts.

While the industry is stabilising after years of volatility, the reality is that 2026 remains a complex year for freight buyers. Overcapacity is growing, geopolitical risks continue to affect routing decisions, and contract strategies need to evolve to manage uncertainty.

Here are the key insights cargo owners should take into the year ahead.

A market stabilising, but still volatile

After several years of disruption, the container shipping market is beginning to stabilise. However, uncertainty around demand, particularly in the United States, continues to make planning difficult.

Trade policy changes and tariff tensions have already disrupted many China-centric sourcing strategies. At the same time, global container shipping is expected to grow by roughly 3% in 2026, creating a landscape where demand is steady but unpredictable.

This uncertainty means flexibility is becoming a defining theme for cargo owners — especially when structuring freight contracts.

Overcapacity is returning, and shippers have leverage

One of the biggest structural changes in 2026 is the scale of new vessel capacity entering the market.

More than 10 million TEU of new container vessels are scheduled for delivery, with global fleet capacity expected to grow by around 3.6% this year.

However, not all of this capacity will translate into immediate market availability. Several offsetting factors may slow the impact:

• Around 10–20% of newbuild deliveries may slip, delaying capacity.
• Scrapping levels remain relatively low, meaning older vessels stay in service longer.
• Shorter transit times, if the Suez Canal fully normalises, could effectively release 5–7% additional capacity into the system.

The net result is a market that is structurally oversupplied, putting downward pressure on freight rates once networks stabilise.

For cargo owners, this means something important: carriers will increasingly compete for volume, not just on price but also on reliability and service quality.

The Suez Factor: Reopening Doesn’t Mean Stability

One of the most discussed developments is the gradual return of vessels to Suez Canal transits after diversions around the Cape of Good Hope.

While reopening the route reduces transit time, it also creates operational ripple effects.

Carriers restarting services through Suez can trigger:

Vessel bunching
When transit times shorten by 10–14 days, multiple services arrive at hubs simultaneously, putting pressure on berth windows.

Port congestion
Higher yard density and simultaneous vessel arrivals reduce efficiency, potentially leading to rolled containers and longer dwell times.

Equipment imbalances
Empty containers can end up in the wrong regions, causing shortages and potential surcharges.

Inland supply chain pressure
Rail, trucking, and warehouse capacity may struggle to absorb sudden waves of cargo.

In other words, shorter routes do not automatically mean smoother operations.

Geopolitics Remains a Constant Risk

Geopolitical tensions continue to influence shipping economics and routing decisions.

Several flashpoints remain particularly relevant for 2026:

The Strait of Hormuz
Tensions linked to Iran are driving fluctuations in war-risk premiums and insurance costs, affecting freight economics.

The Americas
Political developments, including U.S. involvement in Venezuela, are reshaping regional trade flows and insurance dynamics.

Asia’s maritime corridors
Flashpoints across the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait continue to threaten critical global trade lanes.

For cargo owners, these developments reinforce a key message: risk management must remain central to logistics planning.

Carriers’ Playbook for Managing Capacity

Despite structural overcapacity, carriers are not powerless. Shipping lines still have a range of tools to influence supply and protect yields, including:

Network design tools

• Blank sailings
• Service consolidation
• Port rotation changes
• Slow steaming

Asset management tools

• Charter renegotiations
• Vessel idling
• Maintenance or retrofits
• Controlled delivery of newbuild vessels

Commercial tools

• Yield management
• Allocation discipline
• Enforcement of minimum quantity commitments (MQC)

In other words, even in an oversupplied market, carriers will actively manage capacity to stabilise rates where possible.

Reliability vs Cost: The New Trade-Off

While schedule reliability improved somewhat in 2025, cargo owners in 2026 will increasingly have to choose between reliability and price on a lane-by-lane basis.

Port congestion, concentrated flows at mega hubs, and operational disruptions continue to create variability across networks.

At the same time, blank sailings, used to manage overcapacity, may also create supply chain pressure if services are removed on specific routes.

The Biggest Contracting Mistake Shippers Make

One of the clearest takeaways from the webinar was about procurement strategy. Many companies still bet their entire annual volume on a single pricing model, typically either fully fixed contracts or spot exposure. This approach creates unnecessary risk. Instead, the recommended strategy is to split freight exposure across multiple contract types deliberately.

A more resilient structure might look like:

Fixed-term contracts
Used for predictable lanes where stability is more important than chasing short-term market swings.

Index-linked contracts
Used for volatile lanes where market alignment provides flexibility.

This hybrid approach:

• Reduces renegotiation pressure
• Anchors pricing conversations in market data
• Limits exposure to sudden spot spikes
• Maintains flexibility in uncertain conditions

The goal is not perfect forecasting but it is building contracts that survive volatility.

Technology’s Growing Role in Freight Management

Digital tools are also becoming increasingly important in helping cargo owners manage complexity.

Modern freight management platforms can help teams:

• Predict vessel delays more accurately
• Track orders rather than individual shipments
• Analyse carrier performance and dwell times
• Monitor freight spend and carbon emissions

These capabilities allow logistics teams to shift from reactive firefighting to proactive decision-making.

Final Thought: Flexibility Is the Real Competitive Advantage

If there was one consistent message throughout the discussion, it was this:

2026 will reward flexibility.

Between overcapacity, geopolitical tensions, and shifting trade patterns, the shipping environment remains unpredictable.

The companies that navigate it best will not be those trying to predict the market but those building procurement strategies, contracts, and supply chains that can adapt when the market inevitably shifts.

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