If your Q3 shipping plans involve moving goods through China or Europe, now is the time to take a hard look at your logistics strategy. Congestion is intensifying at several major ports — including Shanghai, Ningbo, Rotterdam, and Hamburg — and delays are already rippling through global schedules.

Shippers are facing quite the supply chain storm: rerouted vessels due to Red Sea disruptions, overcapacity at key terminals, and limited space availability heading into peak season. With blank sailings, port omissions, and rising freight rates back on the table, your cargo is more vulnerable than it has been in over a year.

This article breaks down what’s driving the congestion, why it’s likely to get worse in Q3, and what practical steps you can take right now to minimise delays and avoid costly surprises.

What’s Causing the Congestion?

1. Port Bottlenecks in China

Several Chinese ports, including Shanghai, Ningbo, and Yantian, are experiencing mounting backlogs. The causes are multifaceted:

• Increased Transshipment Volumes: As carriers reroute vessels to avoid Red Sea attacks, more cargo is being transhipped through East Asia, funnelling traffic into already-busy Chinese ports.

• Labour and infrastructure strain: Ongoing staffing shortages, equipment imbalances, and inland bottlenecks continue to impact port efficiency — particularly as vessel calls bunch up due to rerouted trade flows and tight sailing schedules.

• Limited Terminal Capacity: Some terminals are hitting peak yard utilisation levels of 85–90%, well beyond the comfort zone for fluid operations.

2. European Port Disruptions

On the other side of the world, the situation is just as tense:

• Antwerp, Rotterdam, and Hamburg are seeing rising vessel queues and dwell times.

• Berth Delays & Equipment Shortages: Terminal congestion is delaying unloading and reloading operations, while inland container shortages are complicating onward movement.

• Labour Actions & Strikes: Industrial action in parts of Europe, especially at German ports, is adding uncertainty and delays to sailing schedules.

Capacity Shifts Are Making Things Worse

One of the most critical but less talked about issues is the reallocation of vessel capacity:

• Red Sea Diversions: As carriers avoid the Suez Canal and opt to sail around the Cape of Good Hope, transit times have increased by 10–14 days. This has effectively “soaked up” vessel and container capacity and it’s leaving fewer available ships to maintain regular Asia-Europe rotations.

• Blank Sailings and Port Omissions: Carriers are skipping congested ports altogether to keep schedules intact, meaning your booked container might not even get loaded if the call is dropped.

• Bunching Effect: With more vessels arriving off-schedule, many are converging on ports at the same time, overwhelming available berths and creating waves of congestion.

How This Affects Q3 Shipping Plans

If your supply chain relies on stable ocean transit, now is the time to prepare. The ripple effects of current congestion will be most felt in Q3 due to:

• Peak Season Demand: From mid-July through September, retailers begin frontloading inventory for the holiday season. Space becomes scarce, and rates typically rise — congestion only adds fuel to that fire.

• Longer Lead Times: With average transit delays from Asia to Europe already climbing past 7–10 days in some lanes, many Q3 shipments could arrive weeks late if not planned carefully.

• Increased Freight Rates: Spot rates on Asia-Europe and intra-Europe lanes are rising fast due to tighter capacity. Surcharges are likely to continue, including Peak Season and Congestion Surcharges.

• Unpredictable Schedules: When carriers reshuffle port calls or delay sailings, even well-planned logistics chains can unravel.

Mitigating the Risk: Pro Tips for Shippers

As a freight forwarder, we’re already helping clients navigate these headwinds. Here’s what you can do now to stay ahead:

1. Book Early — Very Early

If you're shipping for Q3, don’t wait. Secure space 4–6 weeks in advance wherever possible. Many vessels are already overbooked, especially on Asia-Europe lanes.

2. Split Shipments Strategically

Don’t put all your goods on one sailing. Spread out critical inventory across multiple shipments or carriers. This reduces your exposure if one leg is delayed or omitted.

3. Choose Flexible Ports

If your usual port of discharge is congested, consider alternatives. For instance, shipments bound for Northern Germany could be routed via Zeebrugge or Le Havre. Discuss options with your forwarder based on your inland distribution plan.

4. Use Priority Services Where Necessary

Most carriers and NVOCCs now offer premium or express services for a surcharge. These can include priority loading or faster customs handling — worth considering for high-value or time-sensitive cargo.

5. Monitor Vessel Schedules Daily

Schedules are changing frequently due to blank sailings and port omissions. Work with a forwarder who can monitor your bookings in real time and alert you to changes.

6. Build More Buffer Time into Lead Times

Assume 10–15 extra days in your supply chain, especially for Asia-Europe routes. Update your planning models, customer commitments, and inventory levels accordingly.

7. Consider Multimodal Solutions

When feasible, rail freight from China via the Eurasian corridor, or short-sea options within Europe, can provide alternatives to congested seaports. Air freight might also be justified for high-margin or urgent goods.

Don’t Wait for the Crunch

The warning signs are here. Congestion at China and Europe ports is building now — and it’s poised to disrupt supply chains during the critical third quarter.

The good news? With forward planning, diversified routing, and the right logistics partner, you can keep your goods moving and protect your delivery promises. As your freight forwarder, we’re here to help you stay agile, informed, and in control.

‍