Market Update

Market Update January 2026

January 5, 2026
Sasha Khan
Marketing Manager
8 Minutes

At A Glance

  • Carriers are defending spot rates on major trade lanes into early 2026, keeping prices steady on routes like Asia–Europe and Asia–Med ($2,000–$3,600 FAK).
  • Webinar: Global Shipping in 2026: Routes, Rates and Reality for Cargo. Join us and special guest speaker, Gary Jeffreys, who is Managing Partner at NovaChain and ex-MD at Maersk for insider tips on the global shipping landscape.
  • Global capacity looks healthy, but access to space and containers remains inconsistent across trade lanes.
  • Even though the “ship-before-CNY” deadlines have passed, disruption is still building and will last well beyond the holiday.
  • Air Freight in 2026. This year will continue the trend of fragmented demand, shifting trade lanes, and short-term capacity spikes, requiring flexibility and foresight from shippers.
  • Webinar: Customs in 2026. New Rules, New Risks. We cover key changes in trade agreements, SPS controls, security/data rules like ISC2, and post-Brexit frameworks (Windsor, Regime 42, RGR) are set to reshape customs this year.

Supply Chain Outlook 2026: What Shippers Should Be Preparing For

Carriers are defending pricing into early 2026, keeping spot rates relatively firm on major trade lanes despite lower booking activity. This reflects a deliberate strategy to set a higher baseline ahead of annual contract negotiations.

Spot rates holding near elevated levels

Carriers are defending pricing into early 2026, keeping spot rates relatively firm on major trade lanes despite lower booking activity. This reflects a deliberate strategy to set a higher baseline ahead of annual contract negotiations.

In the short term, this has resulted in stronger pricing on routes such as Asia–Europe and Asia–Med, where capacity management is supporting rates in the region of $2,000–$3,600 for FAK levels.

Looking further into 2026, however, broader market forecasts continue to point to downward pressure on rates. Ongoing overcapacity and the potential return of Red Sea routings could increase available supply, shifting leverage back towards shippers and favouring longer-term contracts for improved value.

For shippers, this reinforces the need for close market monitoring and flexible pricing strategies as contract negotiations progress through 2026.

Webinar: Global Shipping in 2026: Routes, Rates and Reality for Cargo Owners

From Red Sea disruptions and forced detours to sharp freight rate swings, overcapacity and fragile schedules, global shipping has entered a far more complex phase. For cargo owners, the assumptions that once underpinned routing, reliability and contracting no longer apply.

In this webinar, we have a special guest - former Managing Director at Maersk, joins Unsworth to share a rare carrier-side view of how these decisions are actually made. Drawing on his experience running global networks, Gary will offer practical insight for importers and exporters who need to make confident decisions in an increasingly uncertain environment — across routing, contracts, inventory and visibility.

What you will take away from this free webinar?

  • A realistic view of how global shipping networks are being redesigned in response to geopolitical risk and ongoing detours
  • Clear insight into how overcapacity and alliances will influence freight rates and service stability in 2026
  • Practical guidance on how to structure freight contracts and partnerships that can withstand volatility

Thursday 12th February 2026

Register here: https://campaign.unsworth.uk/global-shipping-webinar-jan-26

Capacity and Containers in Focus

Global capacity looks healthy, but access to space and containers remains inconsistent across trade lanes.

While overall vessel capacity appears sufficient, available space varies widely by trade lane. Carriers are frequently adjusting schedules and blanking sailings to match short-term demand, which can tighten space on some routes while leaving others with excess capacity.

Equipment availability also remains a risk. Pre-holiday shipping surges and the rapid movement of empty containers can create short-term shortages, particularly on Asia-origin lanes.

This is where our network comes into play. Through our LCL services and flexible carrier partnerships, we’re able to keep cargo moving even when full-container space is limited. By consolidating freight and leveraging alternative routings and sailings, we help customers maintain flow, reduce delays, and stay responsive in tight market conditions.

Early planning remains important, but with the right options in place, capacity constraints don’t have to mean disruption. Our team is on hand to help you identify the most effective solution for your shipments.

Chinese New Year: Holiday Impact Starts Now

The 2026 Chinese New Year (CNY) falls on Tuesday, 17 February, with the official public holiday likely running through 23 February. The full impact typically occurs from late January through early March.

Even though the “ship-before-CNY” deadlines have passed, disruption is still building and will last well beyond the holiday:

  • Factories wind down early: Production slows from mid-January as workforces travel and suppliers close.
  • Ports and carriers reduce activity: Major Chinese ports operate on reduced schedules, with more blank sailings limiting capacity and extending transit times.
  • Recovery takes time: Full production and logistics flows typically don’t normalise until mid-March, creating a disruption window of up to 6–8 weeks.

Chinese New Year impacts peak after the holiday and unwind gradually:

  • Fewer sailings: Blank sailings reduce frequency and space availability on Asia trade lanes.
  • Post-holiday congestion: Backlogs form as factories reopen unevenly, slowing customs and inland transport into March.
  • Rate volatility: Ocean and air freight rates may spike as capacity and demand fall out of balance.
  • Equipment tightness: Container and chassis availability can remain constrained into Q1 due to imbalanced flows.

Air Freight in 2026: Plan Early, Move Fast

Air freight is no longer just a backup for delayed ocean shipments — it has become a strategic, high-value tool for moving goods quickly in an unpredictable environment.

The air cargo market of 2025 was less about traditional peak seasons and more about rapid response. Shippers increasingly front-loaded cargo to avoid uncertainty, while demand became more fragmented across regions, commodities, and timeframes.

Air cargo remains a strategic tool, not just a backup for delayed ocean shipments. 2026 will continue the trend of fragmented demand, shifting trade lanes, and short-term capacity spikes, requiring flexibility and foresight from shippers.

Key points for the year ahead:

  • Changing trade lanes: Growth in intra-Asia, intra-Europe, and emerging markets is creating new capacity pressures.
  • Volatile rates: Air freight prices remain elevated and can spike quickly; early bookings and blended contract/spot strategies are essential.
  • Flexible capacity: Carriers adjust schedules frequently; multi-leg and multi-carrier options help ensure reliability.
  • Time-sensitive cargo: High-value, perishable, and urgent shipments dominate demand — plan early and consider premium services.

Air freight in 2026 rewards planning, flexibility, and proactive management. And those who act early will secure reliable capacity and control costs.

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