Market Update

Market Update March 2026

March 3, 2026
Sasha Khan
Marketing Manager
8 Minutes

At A Glance

  • Commercial air and ocean freight operations across the Middle East are facing severe disruption due to escalating security concerns.
  • Fuel surcharges are being assessed weekly due to volatile fuel pricing linked to the conflict in Iran, and will apply to all rates, including previously agreed “all-in” rates.
  • Commercial operations in the Gulf are facing disruption as carriers suspend bookings, reroute vessels, and apply conflict-related surcharges.
  • Emergency conflict and war-risk surcharges are being applied, ranging from $1,500 to $4,000 per container depending on container type and route.
  • Available cargo capacity on the Asia–Middle East–Europe corridor falling sharply as carriers abandon traditional Gulf stopovers. The disruptions are forcing airlines to reroute flights, increase transit times, and reconsider operational strategies.
  • Join our webinar Middle East Disruptions: Urgent Supply Chain Impacts on Monday 9th March 2026 at 11:00 AM GMT where we break down the latest developments and share expert insights on the shipping landscape.
Download the PDF Market Update here.

Middle East Shipping Disruption

Commercial air and ocean freight operations across the Middle East are facing severe disruption due to escalating security concerns

  • Multiple airlines have suspended both passenger and freighter services across significant parts of the region.
  • The United States has declared a maritime warning zone covering the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz, effectively restricting commercial vessel movements.
  • Major ocean carriers have diverted vessels or instructed ships within the Gulf to seek shelter.
  • Fuel surcharges are being assessed weekly due to volatile fuel pricing linked to the conflict in Iran, and will apply to all rates, including previously agreed “all-in” rates.

Following a tanker strike off Oman and reported damage at Jebel Ali, risk perception across Gulf routings has shifted sharply.

What we’re seeing:

  • War risk premiums starting to rise
  • Insurers tightening underwriting posture
  • Hapag-Lloyd suspending transits via the Strait
  • Vessels pausing, waiting, or reassessing Gulf port calls

Bottom line: Gulf routings are becoming commercially harder to operate.

  • Lead times and reliability become less predictable
  • Supply chain diversification — such as alternate sourcing and stock buffers — becomes even more critical
  • Disruptions or even temporary shutdowns of this corridor would impact the flow of electronics, machinery and finished goods, amplifying delays and pushing up freight costs.
  • Supply chain interruptions here would cascade into manufacturing sectors worldwide.

Gulf Cargo Operations Hit by Suspended Bookings and Vessel Rerouting

The Middle East shipping landscape is under pressure as carriers reassess the safety and commercial viability of Gulf operations.

Commercial operations in the Gulf are facing disruption as carriers suspend bookings, reroute vessels, and apply conflict-related surcharges. Shippers should expect delays, congestion, and rising costs, emphasising the need for careful route planning and risk monitoring.

Key information:

  • Multiple major ocean carriers—including CMA CGM, Cosco, HMM, MSC, ONE, OOCL, PIL, and Wan Hai—have suspended cargo bookings for Middle East routes, particularly those transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Evergreen has made adjustments to vessels already in transit, while Maersk and CMA CGM are rerouting ships away from traditional Gulf passages, opting for alternative routes around Africa.
  • Emergency conflict and war-risk surcharges are being applied, ranging from $1,500 to $4,000 per container depending on container type and route.
  • Cargo is increasingly being discharged at alternative ports such as Salalah, Khor Fakkan, Sohar, Duqm, and Colombo, creating congestion and delays in onward shipments.
  • Insurers are tightening underwriting, and carriers are operating with heightened caution, reflecting a sharp increase in perceived risk in the region.

Airlines Reroute Flights as Gulf Closures Disrupt

With airspace in Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, and Israel closed, airlines have rapidly reconfigured operations.

Air cargo operations between Asia and Europe are facing unprecedented disruption following widespread Middle East airspace closures. The impact has been immediate and severe, with available cargo capacity on the Asia–Middle East–Europe corridor falling sharply as carriers abandon traditional Gulf stopovers. The disruptions are forcing airlines to reroute flights, increase transit times, and reconsider operational strategies.

Key Points:

  • Available cargo tonne‑kilometres (ACTK) on Asia–Middle East–Europe routes fell by approximately 26% over a single weekend.
  • Airspace closures affect Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, and Israel, prompting carriers to fly direct long-haul sectors or divert via Central Asia.
  • Direct Asia–Europe capacity has risen 13–14% as airlines avoid Gulf hubs like Doha, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi.
  • Gulf stopover capacity has plunged by as much as 75%, highlighting the region’s centrality to global air cargo flows.
  • India and South Asia have experienced capacity drops exceeding 60%, emphasising their reliance on Gulf links.
  • Forwarders are limiting bookings and advising shippers to hold cargo at origin as the network adjusts.
  • Overall global air cargo lift has declined by up to 18% week-on-week, with 13% of international widebody and freighter capacity now at risk.

Airlines are rerouting flights, capacity is constrained, and the disruption is creating potential backlogs and upward pressure on freight rates. Shippers should closely monitor developments and consider alternative routing and contingency plans to maintain supply chain continuity.

Asia–Europe Capacity Plummets: Middle East Airspace Closures

Air cargo capacity across the vital Asia–Europe trade corridor has collapsed as widespread Middle East airspace closures send shockwaves through global freight networks.

New data from aviation consultancy Aevean shows that available cargo tonne‑kilometres (ACTK) on the Asia–Middle East–Europe route fell by around 26% over a single weekend compared with the prior week as carriers were forced to abandon traditional Gulf stopovers in the face of escalating regional risk.

[Webinar] Middle East Disruptions: Urgent Supply Chain Impacts

The Middle East is sending shockwaves through global shipping—and your supply chain could be next. Ocean routes are rerouting, air freight schedules are shifting, carriers are updating surcharges, and delays are mounting.

Join our Procurement Manager, Cesar Caicedo, and Air Freight Heathrow Branch Manager, Mick Patterson, for a live session where they’ll break down the latest developments and share expert insights on the shipping landscape.

Whether you ship by sea or air, this webinar equips you to act fast, plan smarter, and stay ahead of the curve.

What you will take away from this free webinar?

  • Understand how Middle East disruptions are reshaping ocean and air freight routes, and what carriers are doing in response.
  • Get clarity on new fees, surcharges, and pricing shifts so you can plan budgets and avoid unexpected costs.
  • Learn practical steps from our Procurement Manager and Head of Air Freight Operations to minimize delays and keep your shipments moving.

Click here to register.

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