Market Pressures Drive Carriers to Step Up Blank Sailings

The cuts are aimed at balancing capacity during China’s Golden Week factory closures, but despite the reductions, the majority of departures are still set to operate.

Carriers are intensifying blank sailings this October as oversupply, weak demand and growing congestion continue to weigh on the market.

Between late September and early November, 13% of scheduled sailings have been withdrawn—90 cancellations out of 716 departures. The bulk of these cuts are on the Transpacific Eastbound trade (50%), followed by Asia–Europe/Mediterranean (37%) and the Transatlantic westbound (13%). In just one week, announced cancellations for weeks 40–41 jumped by 22%, climbing from 55 to 67, as carriers adjusted supply ahead of China’s Golden Week factory closures.

Despite these measures, 87% of planned sailings are still expected to operate.  

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Spot Rates Decline Amid Operational Disruptions

Spot container rates continue to fall sharply, reflecting ongoing softness in demand across key trade lanes.

Drewry’s World Container Index dropped another 8% week-on-week to $1,761 per 40ft container, marking the lowest level since early 2024. Rates from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean declined 8%, Transpacific lanes fell 9%, and Transatlantic routes eased 6%, highlighting a broad-based decline across east–west trades.

Adding to the market pressure, operational disruptions are further complicating supply chains. Typhoon-related delays in South China have slowed port operations, while strikes at major Italian ports are creating congestion in Europe. These events are causing cascading schedule disruptions, reducing reliability and increasing the risk of delays for cargo in transit.

For UK shippers and importers, the current environment underscores the need for careful planning. Flexibility is key: businesses should consider booking space well in advance, building contingency plans for potential delays, and closely monitoring both rate movements and operational developments. Staying proactive will help mitigate exposure to both rising costs and scheduling disruptions, ensuring supply chains remain resilient during this volatile period.

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Asia–Europe: Hapag-Lloyd Pushes for Major Rate Increase

Shippers and importers are now facing a landscape of increasing freight costs and operational uncertainty.

Hapag-Lloyd has announced a significant General Rate Increase (GRI) on shipments from Asia to Europe, due to take effect from 15 October. The carrier is seeking to lift rates by around USD 1,000 per container into North Europe, with even steeper hikes for Mediterranean ports.

This move is seen as an aggressive attempt to halt the slide in spot market rates and set a new pricing floor ahead of the fourth quarter. Over recent months, carriers have struggled with rates falling to unprofitable levels, and this announcement represents a clear signal of intent to reverse that trend.

The key question for the market now is whether other major carriers will follow Hapag-Lloyd’s lead. If they do, shippers and importers should prepare for higher freight costs in the weeks ahead. If not, the increase could prove short-lived, with continued volatility in the spot market.

This development comes at a sensitive time, as businesses plan for year-end supply chain requirements. Our team will continue to track developments and provide timely updates to help you plan your supply chain with confidence.

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Beijing Tightens Export Controls on Goods

The Chinese government has introduced stricter controls on so-called “dual-use” products — goods that can be applied in both civilian and military industries. These new measures are already leading to longer checks and tighter scrutiny at ports, particularly for items such as automotive components, advanced materials, and rare earth products.

For shippers, this means exports from China may face new licensing requirements and extended processing times. Cargo that falls under the “dual-use” category is at greater risk of delay, and in some cases, shipments may be held back until additional documentation is approved.

UK importers sourcing from China should be aware of the potential impact on lead times and costs. To minimise disruption, businesses are advised to review their product lines for any goods that could be subject to the new restrictions, allow for extra time in their supply chains, and work closely with suppliers to ensure all export paperwork is in order.

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US Tariffs on Timber Could Push Prices Higher

The Trump administration has expanded its Section 232 tariffs to include imported timber and wood derivatives, such as plywood and particle board. This move is expected to lead to higher costs for US consumers, particularly in the housing and furniture sectors. The impact on prices will depend on the elasticity of demand for these products. If demand is inelastic, the full cost of the tariffs may be passed on to consumers.

Shippers and importers should anticipate potential delays and increased costs in their supply chains. It's advisable to review sourcing strategies and consider alternative suppliers or materials to mitigate the impact of these new tariffs.

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Airfreight Rates Surge Amid Golden Week & Typhoon

Airfreight rates from China to Europe have experienced significant increases, ranging from 30% to 50%, due to a combination of factors.  

The convergence of the Chinese Golden Week holiday, typhoon-related disruptions in South China, and ongoing rail infrastructure issues has led to a sharp rise in demand for air cargo services. This surge in demand, coupled with limited capacity, has driven up rates substantially.

For UK importers and shippers, this development underscores the importance of proactive planning. To mitigate potential disruptions and manage costs effectively, securing airfreight space early and staying informed about market trends will be crucial in the coming weeks.

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