Asia-Europe Freight Rates Climb Amid Peak Season and Geopolitical Tensions

Container rates on Asia–Europe trade lanes have climbed sharply through July, with spot market prices now averaging around $3,500 per 40-foot container (FEU).

This marks a substantial jump from June levels, driven by tightened capacity and strong early peak season demand. However, this rate spike is expected to ease by August, with forecasts suggesting rates could return to around $2,400–$2,600 per FEU.

The recent surge is largely the result of market distortions caused by shifts in vessel deployment. Many carriers had repositioned vessels and containers onto transpacific routes, anticipating a rush of cargo into the US after Trump announced a 90-day pause on planned tariffs. However, that surge never materialised, leaving Asia–Europe trade lanes with a shortage of capacity and triggering a series of blank sailings to rebalance equipment and vessel positioning.

For UK shippers, this has translated into sharp rate increases on key routes. Spot rates from Shanghai to major European hubs such as Rotterdam and Genoa had already been climbing, with some routes seeing additional peak season surcharges of around $250 per TEU. Now, with space constrained and fewer sailings available, short-term costs have escalated further.

That said, this price spike is expected to be temporary. As vessels and containers return to Asia–Europe rotations in the coming weeks, rate levels should begin to normalise, potentially easing pressure by late summer.

Schedule Reliability Improves Despite European Port Congestion

However, significant delays and infrastructure challenges continue to impact port efficiency.

Despite persistent congestion at major North European ports including Antwerp, Rotterdam, Bremerhaven, Hamburg, and Le Havre, container schedule reliability on Asia–Europe services has shown notable improvement in July.

According to Sea-Intelligence, on-time arrivals have risen to around 67%, marking a continued upward trend compared to previous months and a significant year-on-year increase. Port omissions have also dropped, falling to about 7%, indicating that carriers are successfully adjusting schedules to navigate overloaded terminals.

However, congestion remains severe, with barge delays up to 77 hours and longer vessel turnaround times due to infrastructure limits and low Rhine water levels.

For shippers, this means schedules are more reliable, but risks persist. Delays may occur if volumes spike, so proactive booking and flexible routing—such as alternative gateways or inland options—are advisable. We continue monitoring the situation to help adapt your supply chains as needed.

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Tensions in Strait of Hormuz Pose Risks for  Supply Chains

How regional tensions could impact shipping costs, transit times, and supply chain stability

U.S. intelligence recently revealed Iran loaded naval mines in the Persian Gulf, signalling a possible threat to block the Strait of Hormuz—a key route for 20% of global oil shipments. Although the mines haven’t been deployed, this move raises concerns over potential disruptions to global energy flows.

For UK shippers, the main impact would be rising oil prices leading to higher fuel and bunker costs, which typically result in increased shipping surcharges on Asia–UK and Europe–UK routes.

Any escalation forcing tanker vessels to reroute around longer, alternative paths could create additional congestion, particularly in the Suez Canal corridor—one of the world’s busiest shipping arteries.

This could lead to delays, longer transit times, and unpredictability in scheduling for UK-bound cargo.

Given the fluid nature of the situation, UK businesses should remain vigilant and prepare for potential cost increases and logistical disruptions. At Unsworth, we are closely monitoring developments in the region and are ready to support your supply chain with contingency planning and alternative routing options to help mitigate risks.

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Transpacific Ocean Rates Fall Sharply

Asia–U.S. container rates have dropped significantly this week, ending a brief “phantom peak” in demand. Spot prices to the U.S. West Coast are down around 20%, while East Coast rates fell by 13%. As volumes decline, carriers are expected to respond with blanked sailings to balance supply with softer market demand.

The surge seen in recent weeks was driven more by short-term inventory repositioning than any sustained recovery, and that volume has quickly tapered off. As a result, carriers are likely to cancel scheduled departures to avoid overcapacity, which may impact service reliability in the coming weeks.

Clients moving freight on transpacific lanes should expect reduced sailing frequency and possible delays as capacity tightens. We recommend booking ahead and considering flexible routing strategies to avoid disruption. Our team is closely monitoring the situation and can help adjust your shipping plans accordingly.

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Cambodia–Thailand Land Border Closure

Tensions between Cambodia and Thailand have led to the closure of key land border crossings, halting most overland freight. Thailand shut seven checkpoints citing security concerns, and Cambodia responded by suspending Thai fuel and gas imports. The result: significant disruption to cross-border trucking.

However, all seaports remain fully operational, ensuring ocean freight continues without interruption.

For clients relying on land routes between Cambodia and Thailand, we recommend shifting to sea freight or multimodal alternatives. Port access remains stable, but we anticipate potential congestion if demand shifts further toward maritime channels.

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Asia–US Air Freight Surge as July Deadlines Approach

With ocean volumes down sharply, especially from China, many companies are turning to air cargo to ensure timely delivery.

A recent shift in supply chain dynamics is creating a fast‑moving spike in air freight demand from Asia to the US. With ocean demand down sharply across transpacific routes, many shippers are turning to air cargo to beat two critical July deadlines—the 4th of July US holiday and an impending tariff adjustment on 9  July.

The traditional relief valve of ocean freight has diminished, particularly out of China, where volumes have slumped. This opens a window for forwarders and carriers to capture urgent air‑cargo business, as companies strive to pre‑position inventory ahead of tariffs and celebrate the holiday season.

Cargo that would typically travel by sea might now require airlift to meet time‑critical delivery milestones. Expect higher pricing as capacity tightens and demand spikes in the coming weeks. If you're facing tight delivery windows or uncertain ocean timelines, now is the time to consider air freight, particularly for priority goods.

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New EU–UK SPS Agreement Set to Streamline Agri‑Food Trade

On May 20, the EU and UK agreed to create a Common Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Area to ease trade in agri-food products, covering food safety, plant health, and consumer protection. This will significantly reduce routine checks and certifications for most goods traded between Great Britain, Northern Ireland, and EU member states—benefiting exporters of meat, dairy, and fresh produce.

The UK will also maintain close alignment with EU standards under a joint dispute mechanism. As an interim step, the UK government has suspended border checks on medium-risk fruit and vegetables until at least January 2027, while the full SPS framework is finalised.

The agreement is expected to:

• Reduce paperwork and inspection delays, speeding up shipments and lowering costs for importers/exporters.
• Boost UK agri‑food trade: Especially in high-value products like meat, dairy, and fresh produce

However, most changes are not yet in force. Full implementation requires:

• Finalising and ratifying the SPS framework—likely not until mid-2026.
• Clarifying details on exactly which goods qualify and how “dynamic alignment” will work in practice.
• Resolving infrastructure challenges, particularly at key ports, some of which now face underutilisation after investing heavily in SPS checks

Click here to catch up on our webinar where we share how the changes impact businesses.

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