‍Navigating Uncertainty

How Trade Tensions Are Disrupting Global Shipping and What It Means for UK Businesses

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As trade disputes continue to unfold between the US and China, the ripple effects across global shipping are becoming increasingly clear. Recent reports show a notable uptick in cancelled sailings and a slowdown in cargo volumes, particularly on major transpacific routes. For businesses reliant on smooth, predictable international trade flows, these disruptions offer a timely reminder of the fragility of global supply chains.

At Unsworth, we’re closely monitoring these developments—not just because of their impact on US-China trade, but because shifts on major shipping lanes inevitably influence global freight availability, equipment repositioning, and pricing across the market, including here in the UK.

What’s Happening in Ocean Shipping?

• Blanked Sailings Increase: Carriers are cancelling more sailings  as demand softens due to reduced orders and market uncertainty. This strategy helps carriers stabilise freight rates but reduces available space for shippers.
• Import Volumes Falling: US-bound container volumes from China are noticeably lower, reflecting slower retail orders and more cautious buying patterns.
• Rate Volatility: Freight rates, particularly spot rates, are fluctuating as the market recalibrates. While this can offer opportunities for shippers in some cases, it also introduces greater uncertainty for longer-term planning.
• Global Knock-On Effects: Lower transpacific demand can lead to equipment shortages in other regions, schedule disruptions, and altered service offerings on European and UK lanes.

Key Takeaways for UK Importers and Exporters

Even though this latest turbulence is centred around US-China trade, UK businesses are not immune from the secondary impacts:

• Space Availability Could Tighten: Equipment repositioning challenges could result in localised space shortages or delays, especially during peak periods.
• Schedule Reliability May Dip: With carriers adjusting their services to protect profitability, sailing schedules could become less predictable in the short term.
• Freight Costs May Fluctuate: Short-term opportunities on rates could arise—but so too could sudden surcharges or premium space fees, depending on how the global balance of supply and demand shifts.

Ocean Import Updates

The latest in rates, capacity and equipment

Freight rates have started to reflect the mounting pressure from ongoing tariff uncertainty. Rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast jumped 10% to $2,465 per FEU, driven by a wave of frontloading as importers rush to beat potential tariff hikes. East Coast rates also rose by 3% to $3,647 per FEU, with shippers seeking alternative routes and sourcing strategies amid rising tensions.

In contrast, rates from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean saw slight declines—1% and 5% respectively—suggesting a temporary cooling in demand as European importers adopt a wait-and-see approach during the 90-day pause on new tariffs.

These diversions are resulting in longer transit times, tighter vessel capacity, and increased operational costs, all of which are putting upward pressure on freight rates. Shippers are advised to plan ahead, secure capacity early, and remain flexible with routing options as the market adjusts to these persistent disruptions.

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Transpacific Blank Sailings Surge as Demand Fluctuates

Carriers are ramping up blank sailings on eastbound transpacific routes in response to unstable demand following the introduction of US tariff policies. It’s been reporting that between 28 April to 3 May, 10 services to the US west coast will be blanked, removing 28% of weekly capacity.

Many of these cancellations are being announced with minimal notice, a move more typical of seasonal lulls, and reflect significant booking drops—estimated between 30% and 60% in China. Drewry has tracked 72 blanked sailings through the end of May, with the majority on transpacific lanes.

While this disruption is centred on the US market, UK shippers may feel knock-on effects, particularly through equipment shortages, rate fluctuations, and global schedule adjustments.

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Congestion at Northern European Ports Continue

Ports across Northern Europe are experiencing rising congestion and operational disruption, with Antwerp-Bruges and Bremerhaven among the most affected.

The congestion is being driven by a combination of carrier alliance reshuffling, anticipated shifts in US import demand, low Rhine water levels, and labour shortages before Easter. UK shippers may face indirect impacts, especially if routing cargo through affected ports or relying on European rail links.

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Sustainability in Supply Chains

Shipping’s Net-Zero Future Moves Forward – With or Without the US

In a major step toward decarbonising the maritime industry, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has approved a draft Net-Zero Framework to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from shipping. Backed by 63 countries—including the UK, EU, China, India, and Canada—the plan introduces binding fuel standards and a global emissions pricing system, marking a world-first for a whole industry sector.

Under the new framework, vessels over 5,000 gross tonnes—which account for 85% of maritime CO₂ emissions—will be required to cut fuel-related emissions intensity or purchase remedial units to offset excess. Proceeds will support green innovation, aid developing countries, and reward low-emission operators. These measures are due for formal adoption in October 2025 and will come into effect from 2027.

Notably absent from this landmark moment? The United States. In a move that surprised no one and impressed even fewer, the US delegation exited negotiations before the vote—presumably in search of the nearest exit sign marked “status quo.” With the current administration reversing course on climate initiatives, including re-abandoning the Paris Agreement, it's hard to keep track of what "the US position" even means these days.

Frankly, for the rest of us in the business of international shipping—especially here at Unsworth—the work continues. Our partners, our clients, and our planet demand more than political posturing. We're focused on aligning with global standards that future-proof supply chains, reward innovation, and reduce emissions.

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New Trump Tariff Updates

U.S. Small Businesses at Risk from Chinese Import Tariffs

Thousands of U.S. small businesses could face bankruptcy in 2025 unless the U.S. reverses its tariff policies on Chinese imports. Ocean freight bookings from China have dropped by up to 50%, putting pressure on businesses that rely on Chinese manufacturing.

Shifting production outside of China is difficult, as alternatives like Vietnam prioritise larger companies. The tariff hikes are inflating costs and disrupting supply chains, leading to potential losses of $1 trillion in economic activity.

There are concerns that bankrupt U.S. brands may be acquired by their Chinese manufacturers, further consolidating control over the supply chain. Industry groups warn of higher prices and job losses if tariffs continue.

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Air Freight Updates

Bangladesh Responds to India Ban with New Air Cargo Facility

After India’s ban on using its ports for Bangladeshi transhipment cargo, Bangladesh launched a new air freight route from Sylhet Airport. The first shipment, 56 tonnes of garments to Spain, was successfully flown out on 27 April.

The move helped alleviate pressure on Dhaka Airport and reduce handling costs. Authorities also considered expanding air exports from Chittagong and introduced measures to lower costs, including cheaper ground handling at Sylhet.

Industry leaders saw the shift as beneficial for exporters but warned that without an increase in capacity, freight rates could rise. Current rates from Dhaka were $4.50–$5/kg to the US and $2.70–$3.30/kg to Europe.

The Indian transhipment ban was seen as a significant decision, potentially causing long-term disruption to Bangladesh’s export logistics.

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Pathway

Calculating Multi-Modal Shipment Emissions Using the GLEC Framework

As sustainability reporting becomes essential for publishers, we’re helping clients stay ahead by offering accurate, transparent emissions tracking through the GLEC Framework—the logistics industry’s gold standard for carbon calculation.

With Pathway, we break each shipment down by transport mode—road, sea, rail—and use a mix of primary operational data (such as fuel usage, distance, and equipment type) and recognised emission factors to calculate CO₂e emissions per leg. Where detailed shipment data is available, we prioritise that over industry averages to ensure the most accurate reporting possible.

Once shipment-level emissions are calculated, we allocate emissions to each ISBN based on its share of the total shipment—by weight or volume—providing clear product-level carbon insights.

With emissions data made available in our Pathway platform, clients can view:

• Total CO₂e per shipment, container, or order
• ISBN-level emissions reporting
• Emissions breakdown by transport leg and mode

This approach supports carbon labelling, internal sustainability goals, and corporate reporting—all with the level of detail and transparency the publishing industry increasingly demands.

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No two logistics challenges are the same. We understand this and tailor our solutions to meet your specific needs. Our teams work closely with you to develop strategies that address your unique challenges effectively and efficiently.